Minor League Braves Blog

Tuesday, November 25, 2003
 
Regular readers (if there are any left) know that most of my schtick is breaking down the various stats of minor-leaguers with the hope that something useful - or at least interesting - turns up. That gets harder to do in the offseason when there aren't very many games going on - and probably none of them all that meaningful.

So I'm left with 'reporting' news that everyone already knows (Gary Matthews, Jr.?!) or trying to find something useful in 89 excellent ABs from Richie Lewis. There's that and getting married and having deaths (yes, multiple) in the family.

Anyway, October and November have been pretty slow here on the Blog. That might continue in the coming months when even the Winter Leagues wrap up. The good news is that we do have the Rule 5 Draft coming up in 3 weeks, and I HOPE (I'm eternally hopeful) that I can scare up some additional goodies to get you through those barren months until Spring Training.

In old news, the Braves added 10 players to the 40-man roster last week and thus protected them from being selected in the Rule 5: Blaine Boyer, Jose Capellan, Roman Colon, Kelly Johnson, Onil Joseph, Richie Lewis, Bubba Nelson, Tony Pena, Scott Thorman and Adam Wainwright. Let their service time clocks begin!

I'll be the 437th person to say: Tony Pena?!?!?!? Supposedly, the Royals were interested in taking Mr. Pena, so the Braves felt obliged to deny them that wonderful opportunity. There was a note in Baseball America a month or so ago that said that his bat was really opening the organization's collective eyes. There's a multitude of jokes there that I will pass on. For now.
Year   AVG  OBP  SLG  XB%   SB%  BB/AB
2002 .249 .282 .311 15.8 42.3 .03
2003 .259 .304 .328 18.1 58.6 .06
Well, he certainly improved. At his current rate, he'll be replacement-level talent in 2008.

Seriously, I hear he's an incredible defensive SS, and he certainly gets points for that. But being the next Cesar Izturis is not something the organization should be rewarding. And especially not when it costs them a player in the Rule 5 that might actually be able to help the team in the near-future.

Which brings me to the next item on today's agenda. The Braves moved a ton of players around earlier this week to hopefully keep them from being drafted. You all know the rules: if a player on a AAA roster is selected at the Rule 5, then the acquiring team has to find a spot for them on their 25-man roster for the entire season. There's also a minor-league phase where AA players have to stay in AAA for the year, although there are more ways to circumvent that one.

Some of the bigger names on the Braves' AAA roster that have a chance to be taken are: Dan Curtis, Ray Aguilar, Kevin Barry and Buddy Hernandez. I'd rather have any of those on the 40-man roster than Tony Pena.

Josh Tillery and Willie Collazo might be the best bets to be taken in the minor-league portion.

Meet the newest Brave, Gary Matthews, Jr. The team claimed him off of waivers from San Diego yesterday. First, the facts (or at least my version of them): He hit .248/.314/.361 in 468 ABs last year for both San Diego and Baltimore. And that's about average for his career of 4+ seasons. Which isn't very good. A third of his hits went for extra bases which is decent enough. His walk rate was also ok, although it was a bit lower than his career average. And if he is supposed to serve as a replacement for Darren Bragg, well, he can't do much worse than the '03 version, I guess. Those are your positives.

Then there's this from an MLB.com article: "If the Braves are unable to lure Sheffield back to Atlanta, Matthews will compete with Ryan Langerhans and other possible free agent acquisitions for a starting outfield spot." Ugh.

And Matthews will cost around $1 million. Which is entirely too much to pay for a replacement-level (0.7 Runs Against Replacement Player) centerfielder, let alone one that you plan on sticking in right. Oh, and his defense is nothing to write home about either. He accumulated a rousing 1.56 Fielding Win Shares per 1,000 innings, which means he was slightly worse than Pat Burrell. The Braves would've been much better off by waiting to see what corner OFs get non-tendered in December, and hopefully they will still go that route.

Baseball America unveiled their list of top 10 Braves' prospects two weeks ago.

1. Andy Marte
2. Jeff Francoeur
3. Adam Wainwright
4. Bubba Nelson
5. Dan Meyer
6. Adam LaRoche
7. Macay McBride
8. Brian McCann
9. Kyle Davies
10. Anthony Lerew

My only comments: Francoeur and McCann are both too high after having completed just one full season. But then again, BA tends to do that...



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